Everything about Forex

Wirtschaftskalender
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Datum (GMT+1) Land Ereignis Für Einheit Wicht. Tage. Vorsch. Vorher.
Mar 12 – 01:00 WLD  WLD IEA publishes monthly oil market report
Mar 12 – 01:00 PT  PT Parliament holds final vote on 2010 budget
Mar 12 – 05:30 JP  JP Capacity UtilisationCapacity utilization measures the extent to which Japanese manufacturing companies make use of their installed productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy. High capacity utilization usually exerts inflationary pressures as scarce resources are in high demand. However, it may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants, that promote growth in the future.

As a technical note, capacity utilization is referred to as Operating Ratio by the Japanese Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, and indexed to the year 2000 with a base value of 100. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous month or previous year.		 Jan index 1.4
Mar 12 – 05:30 JP  JP Industrial Production (F)The volume of items produced in Japan ’s mining and manufacturing industries. All products, whether sold domestically or abroad, are included in the calculation of industrial production. Industrial production is highly sensitive to the business cycle and can often predict future changes in employment, earnings, and personal income. For these reasons industrial production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the Japanese economy.

The headline value is the percentage change in the index from the previous month or year.		 Jan % m/m 2.5
Mar 12 – 05:30 JP  JP Industrial Production (F)The volume of items produced in Japan ’s mining and manufacturing industries. All products, whether sold domestically or abroad, are included in the calculation of industrial production. Industrial production is highly sensitive to the business cycle and can often predict future changes in employment, earnings, and personal income. For these reasons industrial production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the Japanese economy.

The headline value is the percentage change in the index from the previous month or year.		 Jan % y/y 19.8
Mar 12 – 08:00 DE  DE Wholesale price indexMeasures changes in the prices paid by retailers for finished goods. Growth in wholesale prices usually precedes increases in retail prices, thus changes in Wholesale Prices can be used as an early indicator for inflation. While the CPI records price changes for retail goods, the WPI might pick up inflationary pressures before they reach the headline retail CPI report. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.
Note: WPI provides seasonally adjusted price changes to account for goods’ seasonally volatility.		 Feb % m/m 0.3 1.3
Mar 12 – 08:00 DE  DE Wholesale price indexMeasures changes in the prices paid by retailers for finished goods. Growth in wholesale prices usually precedes increases in retail prices, thus changes in Wholesale Prices can be used as an early indicator for inflation. While the CPI records price changes for retail goods, the WPI might pick up inflationary pressures before they reach the headline retail CPI report. The headline number is the percentage change in the index.
Note: WPI provides seasonally adjusted price changes to account for goods’ seasonally volatility.		 Feb % y/y 2.3 1.9
Mar 12 – 09:00 ES  ES CPI (F) Feb % m/m -0.1 -1
Mar 12 – 09:00 ES  ES CPI (F) Feb % y/y 0.9 1
Mar 12 – 09:00 ES  ES HICP (F) Feb % m/m -0.1 -1.1
Mar 12 – 09:00 ES  ES HICP (F) Feb % y/y 0.9 0.9
Mar 12 – 11:00 EU  EU Industrial productionMeasures the volume change of output of the manufacturing and energy sector. The industrial sector contributes to only a quarter of the Euro-zone GDP. However, most variations in GDP come from the industrial sector, whereas other sectors that contribute far more to national output historically have been very consistent regardless of economic cycles. That is why tracking industrial production is very important for forecasting GDP changes.

Note: The Industrial Production figure can be adjusted for the number of working days in the given time period and/or seasonally to account for weather related changes in production. 		Jan % m/m 0.7 -1.6
Mar 12 – 11:00 EU  EU Industrial productionMeasures the volume change of output of the manufacturing and energy sector. The industrial sector contributes to only a quarter of the Euro-zone GDP. However, most variations in GDP come from the industrial sector, whereas other sectors that contribute far more to national output historically have been very consistent regardless of economic cycles. That is why tracking industrial production is very important for forecasting GDP changes.

Note: The Industrial Production figure can be adjusted for the number of working days in the given time period and/or seasonally to account for weather related changes in production. 		Jan % y/y -1.6 -4.8
Mar 12 – 12:00 GB  GB BoE MPC board member Dale gives speech before Trinity College
Mar 12 – 13:00 CA  CA Net Change in EmploymentThe net change in the number of people employed in Canada. Increases in employment are generally accompanied by higher consumption and expenditure levels. At the same time, higher employment, consumption and expenditures may lead to heightened inflationary pressures that encourage central banks to tighten monetary policy. If the Bank of Canada were to raise interest rates, it would put upward pressure on the Canadian dollar.

Because this is the main employment report in Canada it tends to have significant impact on the market. The headline figure is the change in employment in thousands.		 Feb k 15.5 43
Mar 12 – 13:00 CA  CA UnemploymentThe percentage of people in the total – labor force without jobs but willing to work and are actively seeking employment. Lower unemployment bodes well for the economy, translating into more income-earning workers and greater consumption. While such increased expenditure accelerates economic growth, it can also heighten inflationary pressures. On the other hand, a higher unemployment rate tends to lead to lower consumer spending and a contracting economy. The Unemployment Rate is one of the most watch headline indicators of Canada ’s labour market. Feb % 8.3 8.3
Mar 12 – 14:30 US  US Retail SalesMonthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. Given that retail sales make up a hefty one third of such spending, the Advanced Retail Sales figure acts as a measure of consumer demand before GDP is released.

The figure has its limits, though. For instance, the timely release of the report comes at the cost of volatility in the figures and significant monthly revisions. It is not unusual for the figure to come out positive one month, only to be subsequently revised as negative. Retail Sales can also be volatile due to seasonality. Additionally, the report has been criticized for excluding service sector sales and failing to adjust for inflation. Despite these drawbacks, the figure still moves the market on release, mainly because of the importance of consumer spending to the US economy.

The Retail Sales figure is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars based on a sample of stores throughout the month – returns, taxes and finance charges are excluded. It appears in the headlines as the annualize percentage change from the previous month.		 Feb % m/m -0.2 0.5
Mar 12 – 14:30 US  US Retail Sales Ex AutosMonthly measure of sales of goods to consumers at retail outlets. The figure is a significant market mover, valuable both for its timeliness and insight into consumer demand and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is vital to the US economy, accounting for more than two-thirds of all economic activity. Given that retail sales make up a hefty one third of such spending, the Advanced Retail Sales figure acts as a measure of consumer demand before GDP is released.

The figure has its limits, though. For instance, the timely release of the report comes at the cost of volatility in the figures and significant monthly revisions. It is not unusual for the figure to come out positive one month, only to be subsequently revised as negative. Retail Sales can also be volatile due to seasonality. Additionally, the report has been criticized for excluding service sector sales and failing to adjust for inflation. Despite these drawbacks, the figure still moves the market on release, mainly because of the importance of consumer spending to the US economy.

The Retail Sales figure is calculated as the total receipts of retail sales in nominal dollars based on a sample of stores throughout the month – returns, taxes and finance charges are excluded. It appears in the headlines as the annualize percentage change from the previous month.

Retail Sales Ex Autos

The Retail Sales figure is also reported excluding automobile sales. Given their high cost, auto sales contribute significantly to retails sales, comprising nearly a quarter of the figure. As a result, changes in automobile sales can produce high fluctuations in the retails sales report. Vehicle sales are prone to seasonal changes, thereby easily distorting retail sales trends. To provide a more accurate picture of retail sales the auto component is removed and followed more closely.		 Feb % m/m 0.1 0.6
Mar 12 – 15:55 US  US Univ of Mich Sent. (P)Assesses consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power based on hundreds of telephone surveys. Especially valued for its quick turnaround, the University of Michigan Confidence survey is considered one of the foremost indicators of US consumer sentiment. The survey polls a smaller sample of consumers and is less established than the Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index.

Declining consumer confidence levels usually accompany any fall income or wages and precede drops in consumer spending. A low or falling U Mich Sentiment value is considered an early indicator of an economic downturn. As a result, investors, retailers and traders alike all watch the figure for insight into the general health of the economy. UMich figures have recently preceded turning in overall GDP.

The headline figure is calculated by subtracting the percentage of unfavorable replies from the percentage of favorable replies.

U. of Michigan Confidence (Preliminary)

Early assessment of consumer sentiment regarding personal finances, business conditions and purchasing power. This preliminary figure incorporates approximately 60% of responses that are included in the final figure, and is revised at the end of the month. The preliminary results are not intended for wide release but are regularly leaked to the press and often available to the financial community.		 Mar index 74 73.6
Mar 12 – 16:00 US  US Business inventoriesUnsold goods held by manufacturers, wholesalers and retailers. Business Inventories are often able to show economic turning points. A significant decrease in inventories implies that the economy is on the verge of rapid growth because stockrooms for businesses are empty and need to be replenished, which triggers higher production overall.

Inventories are also useful when examined in conjunction with total business sales. Rising inventories paired with slackening business sales are indicative of troubled economic times. When business sales slow, retailers’ inventories increase and they are forced cut back on wholesale orders. Wholesalers, affected by the fear of swelling inventories, will slow or even shut down production in factories.

Recent technological advancements allow firms to manage inventories more efficiently, keeping inventory levels lower. Accordingly, declines in inventory stores are often indicative of productivity increases rather than changes in demand. But these logistical advances put particular emphasis on growing inventories. Increases in stocks of goods signal declining demand in America .

While the Business Inventories figure is released with the Advanced Retail Sales report, the Advanced Retail Sales report features a lag time of merely two weeks. The Business Inventories’ lag time is three times as long, making it an indicator that follows rather than leads the overall pace of the economy. Market participants tend to focus more on the Advanced Retail Sales figures.

The headline number is expressed as a percentage change from the previous month.		 Jan % m/m 0.1 -0.2
Mar 12 – 18:00 US  US US Treasury Secretary Geithner gives speech before the Export-Import Bank of U.S. Annual Conference
Mar 12 – 21:45 EU  EU ECB President Trichet gives keynote address before the Economic Summit of Stanford Institute of Economic Policy Research
Mar 14 – 01:00 US  US Eastern Daylight time begins
Mar 14 – 22:30 NZ  NZ BNZ-Business NZ PSI Feb index 53.1
Mar 14 – 23:00 AU  AU RBA Assistant Governor, Financial Systems, Edey gives speech before the Cards and Payments Australia 2010 Conference
Mar 15 – 01:00 GB  GB BoE release Quarterly Bulletin
Mar 15 – 01:00 EU  EU Greece submit progress report to EC on implementation of Greek deficit-cutting plan
Mar 15 – 01:00 EU  EU EU Economic and Financial Affairs Council (15-16th)
Mar 15 – 01:00 JP  JP Cabinet Office release Economic Report (March)
Mar 15 – 01:01 GB  GB Rightmove House Prices Mar %y/y 6.1
Mar 15 – 01:30 AU  AU Lending Finanace Feb % m/m
Mar 15 – 06:00 JP  JP Consumer ConfidenceConsumer confidence is a measure of popular sentiment concerning the Japanese economy. The figure is derived from a survey that asks thousands of Japanese consumers about personal expenditure patterns and inflationary expectations. In general, rising consumer confidence precedes increased consumer spending, which drives both economic growth and inflation. Even though t he Japanese economy is heavily driven by its export sector, domestic consumer confidence is an important gauge of overall economic activity and future inflationary pressures.

A headline figure above 50 shows positive consumer sentiment, while a number below 50 shows negative consumer sentiment; the greater the distance, the stronger the sentiment.		 Feb index 39.4
Mar 15 – 08:00 FI  FI CPI Feb % y/y -0.2
Mar 15 – 09:15 CH  CH Producer & Import pricesTracks inflation in producer and import prices in Switzerland . The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous period.

Changes in this index will generally precede changes in the consumer price index, as higher import costs and producer prices tend to eventually be passed to consumers. As with any indicator of inflation, increases in producer and import prices tend to act as an appreciating weight for the Swiss franc because inflationary pressures are almost always met with interest rate increases from the Swiss central bank.

The figure represents changes in the combined producer and import price index, calculated from changes in producer prices and import prices, giving appropriate weight to the proportion of domestic and imported goods.		 Feb %m/m 0.3
Mar 15 – 09:15 CH  CH Producer & Import pricesTracks inflation in producer and import prices in Switzerland . The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous period.

Changes in this index will generally precede changes in the consumer price index, as higher import costs and producer prices tend to eventually be passed to consumers. As with any indicator of inflation, increases in producer and import prices tend to act as an appreciating weight for the Swiss franc because inflationary pressures are almost always met with interest rate increases from the Swiss central bank.

The figure represents changes in the combined producer and import price index, calculated from changes in producer prices and import prices, giving appropriate weight to the proportion of domestic and imported goods.		 Feb %y/y -1.3
Mar 15 – 09:30 NL  NL Trade balance Jan EUR bn 2.1
Mar 15 – 10:00 NO  NO Trade Balance Feb NOK bn 34.4
Mar 15 – 13:00 EU  EU ECB Executive Board member Gonzalez-Paramo gives speech at Caja Inmaculada
Mar 15 – 13:30 CA  CA Motor Vehicle SalesChange in the number of new cars and trucks sold domestically. It’s a sign of consumer confidence – rising demand for expensive durable goods shows that consumers are confident in their future financial position and feel comfortable spending money. Jan % m/m 2.6
Mar 15 – 13:30 US  US Empire State SurveySurvey assessing business conditions and expectations of manufacturing executives in New York . Though the survey is relatively new and New York has a considerably small number of manufacturers, the report has shown a promising correlation to the Philadelphia Fed Index and the market moving ISM Manufacturing Survey. Thus Empire serves as a useful earlier indicator of overall manufacturing in the US .

Results are calculated as the difference between percentage of positive and negative scores; zero acts as the breakeven point. A high figure is bullish for the dollar, indicating positive business sentiment conducive to growth in production. A low or negative number signals poor business conditions.		 Mar index 22 24.91
Mar 15 – 14:00 US  US Treasury International Capital System (TICS)Summarizes the flow of stocks, bonds, and money market funds to and from the United States . The headline figure is the difference in value between American purchases of foreign securities and foreign purchases of American securities, expressed in millions of dollars. The Treasury International Capital or TIC statement is a major component of the American capital account and gives valuable insight into foreign demand for American investments and dollar.

A positive figure indicates that more capital is entering the US than leaving as sales of American securities to foreigners exceed American purchases of foreign securities. Such positive figures suggest that American security markets are competitive with those of other countries. Foreign security purchases are especially important in the case of a trade deficit, as a positive figure can offset the depreciating effect of a trade shortfall. On the contrary, a negative or declining TICS figure reflects a declining capital flow picture. Outflows are indicative of weaker demand for US assets which puts downward pressure on the value of the dollar.
A key feature of the TIC data is its measurement of the types of investors the dollar has; governments and private investors. Usually, a strong government holding of dollar denominated assets signals growing dollar optimism as it shows that governments are confident in the stability of the U.S. dollar. Most importantly seems to be the purchases of Asian central banks such as that of Japan and China. Waning demand by these two behemoth US Treasury holders could be bearish for the US dollar. As for absolute amount of foreign purchases, the market generally likes to see purchases be much stronger than the funding needs of that same month’s trade deficit. If it is not, it signals that there is not enough dollars coming in to match dollar going out of the country. As a side note, purchases by Caribbean central banks are generally seen to be less consistent since most hedge funds are incorporated in the Caribbean. Hedge funds generally have a much shorter attention span than other investors.		 Jan USDbn 63.3
Mar 15 – 14:15 US  US Capacity utilisationCapacity Utilization measures the extent to which U.S. manufacturing companies make use of their installed productive capacity (factories and machinery). Capacity Utilization reflects overall growth and demand in the economy, rising when the economy is vibrant, and falling when demand softens. High capacity utilization also exerts inflationary pressures as scarce resources are in higher demand. However, it may also lead to new capital investments, such as new plants, that promote growth in the future. Feb % 72.6 72.6
Mar 15 – 14:15 US  US Industrial productionMeasures changes in the volume of output produced by the manufacturing, mining, and utility sectors. Because industrial production is a measure of output volume rather than dollar value, the figure is not distorted by inflation and is considered a more “pure” indicator for US industry. Though industrial production only accounts for a relatively small portion of GDP, it accounts for most of the volatility in GDP and is considered highly sensitive to changes in interest rate and consumer demand. Therefore understanding trends in this figure are important to forecasting GDP. High or rising Industrial Production figures suggest increased production and economic expansion. However, uncontrolled levels of production and consumption can spark inflation.

The figure varies significantly month to month due to the fact that seasonal and weather-related factors often alter factory production and utility demand. Because of this volatility, the report has limited market impact.

The figure is calculated as a weighted aggregate of goods and reported in headlines as a percent change from previous months.		 Feb % m/m 0.9
Mar 15 – 17:00 EU  EU EuroGroup FinMin Meeting
Mar 15 – 18:00 US  US NAHB Builders surveyA timely gauge of home sales and expectations for future home building. Based on a small sample of home builders, the Housing Market Index is a timely indicator of future US home sales. However, as the index is not as comprehensive as formal housing reports like new home sales or MBA mortgage applications, the index acts more like a supplemental indicator for predicting housing trends.

As such, the NAHB Housing Market Index is still able to provide general insight to where the housing market is heading. Given that new home sales reflect ‘big ticket’ items that require construction and investment, the housing market is often viewed as an indicator of the direction of the economy as a whole. Growth in the housing market will spur subsequent spending, generating demand for goods and services and the employees who provide them.

The report headline is expressed in percentage change from the previous month.		 Mar index 17 17
Mar 16 – 01:00 JP  JP BoJ MPC Meeting (16th-17th Mar)
Mar 16 – 01:30 AU  AU RBA release minutes from prior (Mar 2nd) MPC meeting
Mar 16 – 07:45 CH  CH SECO Economic Forecasts Mar
Mar 16 – 08:45 FR  FR CPIAssesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Because France is a large member of the European monetary union the value of Euro is sensitive to French CPI. If CPI comes out much higher than expected it may encourage the ECB to raise interest rates which would lead the Euro to appreciate. The opposite may occur when the CPI comes out lower than expected.		 Feb % m/m -0.2
Mar 16 – 08:45 FR  FR CPIAssesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Because France is a large member of the European monetary union the value of Euro is sensitive to French CPI. If CPI comes out much higher than expected it may encourage the ECB to raise interest rates which would lead the Euro to appreciate. The opposite may occur when the CPI comes out lower than expected.		 Feb % y/y 1.1
Mar 16 – 08:45 FR  FR HICPAssesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Because France is a large member of the European monetary union the value of Euro is sensitive to French CPI. If CPI comes out much higher than expected it may encourage the ECB to raise interest rates which would lead the Euro to appreciate. The opposite may occur when the CPI comes out lower than expected.		 Feb % m/m -0.2
Mar 16 – 08:45 FR  FR HICPAssesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes in the prices of consumer items. The CPI is the headline inflation figure that indicates the strength of domestic inflationary pressures. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro in France , where each Euro buys fewer goods and services. CPI is the most popular way to measure changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical French household might purchase. An increase in the index indicates that it takes more Euros to purchase this same set of basic consumer items.

Because France is a large member of the European monetary union the value of Euro is sensitive to French CPI. If CPI comes out much higher than expected it may encourage the ECB to raise interest rates which would lead the Euro to appreciate. The opposite may occur when the CPI comes out lower than expected.		 Feb %y/y 1.2
Mar 16 – 09:00 EU  EU ECOFIN meeting
Mar 16 – 09:30 NL  NL Industrial Production Jan % m/m 1 -2.2
Mar 16 – 09:30 NL  NL Industrial Production Jan % y/y 0.9
Mar 16 – 09:30 NL  NL Retail Trade Jan % y/y 2 -3.2
Mar 16 – 10:00 AT  AT CPI Feb % m/m 1.2
Mar 16 – 10:00 AT  AT CPI Feb % y/y -0.3
Mar 16 – 10:00 IT  IT CPI (F) Feb % m/m
Mar 16 – 10:00 IT  IT CPI (F) Feb % y/y 1.2
Mar 16 – 10:00 IT  IT HICP (F) Feb % m/m
Mar 16 – 10:00 IT  IT HICP (F) Feb % y/y 1
Mar 16 – 10:30 GB  GB DCLG House Prices Jan % y/y 2.9
Mar 16 – 11:00 DE  DE ZEW (Current Conditions)A German Firm, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany ’s economic situation. They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy. For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged. This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time, as well as easy to understand and interpret.

German ZEW Current Situation (Economic Situation)
Unlike the Economic Sentiment Indicator which looks into the future direction of the economy, the Current Situation Indicator focuses on the results of the survey that relate to the current health of the German economy. Expert opinions on whether the current situation is improved, worsened, or unchanged are summarized as the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses. A higher headline figure indicates a stronger economy and better business climate.		 Mar Survey -54.8
Mar 16 – 11:00 DE  DE ZEW (Economic Sentiment)A German Firm, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany ’s economic situation. They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy. For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged. This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time, as well as easy to understand and interpret.

German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Experts are asked for a qualitative assessment of the direction of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and the stock market in the next six months. Thus the indicator provides a medium-term forecast for the German economy.		 Mar Survey 45.1
Mar 16 – 11:00 EU  EU ZEW (Current Conditions) Mar Survey -62.1
Mar 16 – 11:00 EU  EU ZEW (Economic Sentiment)A German Firm, the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW), queries financial experts throughout Europe every month in order to make a medium-term forecast about Germany ’s economic situation. They ask experts to evaluate the current situation and to predict the future direction of the economy. For all components of the survey, responses are restricted to positive, negative, or unchanged. This simple structure allows the survey to be quick and efficient in terms of turnaround time, as well as easy to understand and interpret.

German ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Experts are asked for a qualitative assessment of the direction of inflation, interest rates, exchange rates and the stock market in the next six months. Thus the indicator provides a medium-term forecast for the German economy.

German ZEW Current Situation (Economic Situation)
Unlike the Economic Sentiment Indicator which looks into the future direction of the economy, the Current Situation Indicator focuses on the results of the survey that relate to the current health of the German economy. Expert opinions on whether the current situation is improved, worsened, or unchanged are summarized as the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses. A higher headline figure indicates a stronger economy and better business climate.

Euro-Zone ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment
Assesses future economic expectations for the whole Euro-zone. The results are summarized as the number of positive responses minus the number of negative responses. A higher headline figure indicates a positive expectation for Euro-zone economy.

Technical Note on Headline Number : The results of the survey are always presented as the difference between those experts that optimistic and those are pessimistic. For instance if 25 percent of analysts expect improvement, 35 percent expect decline, and 40 percent expect no change, the headline figure is -10.		 Mar Survey 40.2
Mar 16 – 11:00 EU  EU HICP – Core (F)CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Euro Zone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Euro Zone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

Core CPI – Euro-zone

The CPI is also expressed as Core CPI, a similar measure that excludes energy and food in the basket of goods for the reason that items are highly volatile in price and can distort the CPI. Some market participants believe that Core CPI provides a better representation of inflation.

The headline figures for the Euro-zone Inflation Index are a monthly and annualized percentage change.

Note: The index is expressed in percentage terms with the previous year set as the base measurement year. For example, if the index shows 103% in 2006, the HICP has increased by 3% compare to the base year 2005. The overall Consumer Price Index data for the twelve European Union member countries is referred to as the Harmonized Price Index (HICP). Also, all Euro-zone price indices tends to overstate the actual level of inflation because they do not take into account the consumer’s ability to substitute less costly goods outside of the CPI basket for goods whose prices have risen inside the basket . 		Feb % y/y 0.9
Mar 16 – 11:00 EU  EU HICP (F)CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Euro Zone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Euro Zone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

Core CPI – Euro-zone

The CPI is also expressed as Core CPI, a similar measure that excludes energy and food in the basket of goods for the reason that items are highly volatile in price and can distort the CPI. Some market participants believe that Core CPI provides a better representation of inflation.

The headline figures for the Euro-zone Inflation Index are a monthly and annualized percentage change.

Note: The index is expressed in percentage terms with the previous year set as the base measurement year. For example, if the index shows 103% in 2006, the HICP has increased by 3% compare to the base year 2005. The overall Consumer Price Index data for the twelve European Union member countries is referred to as the Harmonized Price Index (HICP). Also, all Euro-zone price indices tends to overstate the actual level of inflation because they do not take into account the consumer’s ability to substitute less costly goods outside of the CPI basket for goods whose prices have risen inside the basket . 		Feb % m/m -0.8
Mar 16 – 11:00 EU  EU HICP (F)CPI is the key gauge for inflation in the Euro Zone. Inflation, simply put, is a decline in the purchasing power of the Euro, where each Euro buys fewer goods and services due to higher consumer prices. The index tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical household might purchase. When the CPI is high, it indicates that significant inflationary pressures exist in Euro Zone economies. This puts pressure on the European Central Bank to raise interest rates. When CPI comes out lower than expected the ECB is expected to lower interest rates, or keep them lower, to encourage economic growth. As a rule, the Bank adjusts rates in order to keep Europe consumer price inflation in the 0 to 2 percent range.

Core CPI – Euro-zone

The CPI is also expressed as Core CPI, a similar measure that excludes energy and food in the basket of goods for the reason that items are highly volatile in price and can distort the CPI. Some market participants believe that Core CPI provides a better representation of inflation.

The headline figures for the Euro-zone Inflation Index are a monthly and annualized percentage change.

Note: The index is expressed in percentage terms with the previous year set as the base measurement year. For example, if the index shows 103% in 2006, the HICP has increased by 3% compare to the base year 2005. The overall Consumer Price Index data for the twelve European Union member countries is referred to as the Harmonized Price Index (HICP). Also, all Euro-zone price indices tends to overstate the actual level of inflation because they do not take into account the consumer’s ability to substitute less costly goods outside of the CPI basket for goods whose prices have risen inside the basket . 		Feb % y/y 1
Mar 16 – 13:30 CA  CA Labour ProductivityThe average productivity level of Canadian workers. Labour Productivity is calculated by dividing the gross domestic product (GDP) by the number of hours worked, yielding output per hour, which is the key measure of productivity growth. The availability of better technology and higher levels of education among the workforce are factors commonly attributed to increased productivity. Growth in labour productivity is usually seen as a sign of a healthy economy because higher productivity allows higher output for a fixed population. Rising Labour Productivity can also offset inflationary pressures associated with economic growth and spending. Economic expansion attributed to increased Labour Productivity will not result in inflation, meaning that central banks will not need to increase interest rates during times of high growth.

The headline figure is the percentage change in output per hour.		 Q4 % q/q -0.3
Mar 16 – 13:30 CA  CA Manufacturing sales Jan % m/m 1.6
Mar 16 – 13:30 US  US Building PermitsThe number of new building projects authorized for construction. Because receiving a Building Permit is the first step in the construction process, the figure is used as the earliest indicator for developments in the housing market. Additionally, because of the high outlays needed for construction projects an increase in Building Permits implies an increase in investment and corporate optimism. Finally, the figure gives insight into consumer activity, since new home purchases are associated with an increase in sales of “big ticket” durable goods. Given such connections to consumer and corporate sentiment, real estate generally leads economic developments – thriving at the start of a boom and waning at the onset of recession .

Considering the above, one would expect the Building Permits figure to significantly move markets. After all, Building Permits is a part of the Conference Board’s Leading Indicators index used to forecast US growth. However, the timeliness of the figure comes at a cost. The report is far removed from end market impacts, making it a less market-moving figure. 		Feb k 610 622
Mar 16 – 13:30 US  US Housing StartsGauges the change in the number of new houses built in the United States. Housing Starts are one of the earliest indicators of the housing market, only trailing Building Permits in timeliness.

Because high outlays are needed to start construction projects, an increase in Housing Starts implies an increase in investment and business optimism. Finally, the Housing Starts figure gives insight into consumer activity, since new home purchases typically require a large investment for consumers. Given such connections to consumer and corporate sentiment, real estate generally leads economic developments. A sharp drop in new home construction is a warning signal of economic slowdown. Conversely, a rebound in the Housing Starts paves the way for economic recovery.

Housing Starts data is differentiated by building types (single family houses, 2 to 4 residence units and 5 or more residence units). The single family housing starts is a more reliable economic indicator than multi family housing starts, as single family house building is driven by demand and consumer confidence, whereas multi family house building is more often motivated by speculative real estate investors. The report headline is expressed in volume of houses built. The figures are in the thousands of units.		 Feb k 570 591
Mar 16 – 13:30 US  US Import pricesTracks changes in the prices paid for goods imported to the United States. The figure is significant in relation to the trade balance, the difference between the total value of exports and the total value of imports. A positive trade balance (surplus) acts as an appreciating weight on the dollar, reflecting demand for dollars in exchange for exports. Conversely, a negative value (deficit) puts downward pressure on the dollar’s value. Given such impacts, traders assess changes in import prices to gain insight on the trade balance. The Import Price Index becomes useful in determining whether a change in import volume has actually sprung from a higher foreign demand or from a real increase in prices for foreign goods.

The US is a net importer nation, where imports a significant part of the nation’s GDP. Accordingly, a major price swing in foreign goods can have significant impact on the US inflation.

The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from either the previous month or for the year. Import Price Index Excluding Petroleum gives a better overall assessment to the import price change in the United States since petroleum price is highly volatile.		 Feb % m/m -0.2 1.4
Mar 16 – 15:45 EU  EU ECB Executive Board member Stark gives speech on “the post-crisis strategy for growth and jobs”
Mar 16 – 19:15 US  US FOMC interest rate announcementThe announcement of whether the Federal Reserve has increased, decreased or maintained the key interest rate. The FOMC meets eight times per year to decide on monetary policy. After each meeting policy decisions are announced. The main task of the FOMC is to set the monetary stance by fixing the overnight borrowing rate, which essentially sets short-term lending rates in the US. Through this mechanism, the FOMC attempts to affect price levels in order to keep inflation within the target range while maintaining stable economic growth and employment.

The Federal Reserve’s Cash Rate Target decision significantly influences financial markets. Changes in rates affect interest rates for consumer loans, mortgages, bonds, and the exchange rate of the U.S. Dollar. Increases in rates or even expectations of increases tend to cause the Dollar to appreciate, while rate decreases cause the currency to depreciate. Unlike most central banks, the Federal Reserve does not announce an official target inflation rate, arguing independence and flexibility is necessary to implement monetary policy effectively.

The Federal Reserve issues a statement with every rate announcement. Because the decision itself is usually highly anticipated, the wording of the FOMC statement is usually as important if not more important than the actual interest rate move made by the central bank. The FOMC statement contains the Fed’s collective outlook on the economy as well as hints about future monetary policy while the change to interest rates is nothing more than a number. The statement provides clues on plans for the future. When it comes to interest rates, the future direction of rates is usually far more important than its current rate

Ramifications for the U.S. Dollar

Interest rate hike : The US dollar generally rallies on the back of an interest rate hike because the hike increases the yield offered by US assets. This attracts foreign investment into the US which tends to be positive for the dollar. The strength of the reaction will depend on how much the market has already priced in the decision as well as the whether the FOMC statement hints at more rate hikes to come.

Interest rate cut : An interest rate cut tends to be perceived as bearish for the US dollar because the cut reduces the yield offered by US assets. The perception is that the economy has weakened enough that the Federal Reserve is forced to either reduce monetary tightening or increase the stimulus in the market to reignite growth. The strength of the reaction will depend on how much the market has already priced in the decision as well as the whether the FOMC statement hints that more rate cuts are to come.

Rates Left Unchanged : The reaction of the US dollar will depend upon whether the Fed is pausing after a prolonged tightening or easing cycle or has been pausing for some time. If it comes after a tightening cycle, it would be perceived as dollar bearish. If it is after an easing cycle, it would be perceived as dollar bullish. If they have been pausing for months already, the reaction would probably be more neutral.
Mar 17 – 00:30 AU  AU Westpac-MI Leading Index Jan % m/m 0.5
Mar 17 – 00:50 JP  JP METI Tertiary activity indexEvaluates the monthly change in output produced by Japan’s service sector. Japan’s economy is very export based, because this report excludes manufacturing and only measures service industries catering mainly to domestic needs, the Tertiary Industry Index is a key indicator of domestic activity. The index incorporates data from firms involved with wholesale and retail trade, financial services, health care, real estate, leisure, and utilities. The report excludes industrial manufacturing sectors that tend to be influenced by foreign demand. The tertiary industry index is posted monthly as a percentage change from the previous month’s figure. Jan % m/m 1.7 -0.9
Mar 17 – 01:00 JP  JP BoJ MPC interest rate decisionThe Bank of Japan Policy Board meets once a month for two days to discuss economic developments inside and outside of the country. The culmination of the meeting is the announcement of any adjustments to interest rates or other aspects of monetary policy.

Like any central bank the BOJ is tasked with ensuring price stability while taking into account economic growth, employment, and recommendations from the elected government. With this goal in mind, a “Guideline for Money Market Operations” is established at each meeting. Changes in the rate have far-reaching consequences, affecting consumer loans, mortgages, bonds and the exchange rate of the Yen. The statement is the Bank of Japan’s collective outlook on the economy as well as a source for clues on future monetary policy decisions. When it comes to interest rates, the future direction of rates is usually far more important than its current rate.
Mar 17 – 01:00 WLD  WLD OPEC 156th Ordinary meeting
Mar 17 – 01:00 IS  IS Sedlabanki interest rate announcement
Mar 17 – 01:00 US  US Dallas Fed President Fisher participates in panel on crisis reponse at Dallas Fed “euro and the dollar in the crisis” conference
Mar 17 – 01:30 AU  AU Dwelling Commencements Q4 % y/y
Mar 17 – 02:00 NZ  NZ Westpac Consumer Confidence Q1 index 116.9
Mar 17 – 02:00 AU  AU RBA Assistant Governor Debelle, Financial Markets, participates in a panel discussion before the MFAA Industry Leaders’ Luncheon
Mar 17 – 10:00 IT  IT Labour Costs Q4 % q/q 0.5
Mar 17 – 10:00 IT  IT Labour Costs Q4 % y/y 1.8
Mar 17 – 10:00 IT  IT Labour Costs Q4 % q/q 0.5
Mar 17 – 10:00 IT  IT Labour Costs Q4 % y/y 1.8
Mar 17 – 10:30 GB  GB Average Earnings (incl. bonus)Change in the price businesses and the government pay for labor, including bonuses. Data represents the 3-month moving average compared to the same period a year earlier. A figure that excludes bonuses is also released, but not included for lack of significance. It’s a leading indicator of consumer inflation – when businesses pay more for labor the higher costs are usually passed on to the consumer. Jan % 3m y/y 0.8
Mar 17 – 10:30 GB  GB Claimant CountThe Claimant Count is the UK’s most timely measure of unemployment. The report measures the number of people who claim unemployment benefits, but actively seeking work. The Claimant Count serves as a barometer for the health of the UK labor market. Higher job growth accompanies economic expansion and could spark inflationary pressures.

The headline number is a percentage change in the figure.		 Feb K 23.5
Mar 17 – 10:30 GB  GB ILO Unemployment RateThe percentage of persons willing to work and actively seeking employment but who are without jobs. A lower Unemployment Rate translates into more income-earning workers and greater consumption. Increased expenditure accelerates economic growth, but can also heighten inflationary pressures. On the other hand, a higher unemployment rate Jan % 7.8
Mar 17 – 10:30 GB  GB BoE release Agents’ Summary of Business Conditions – Mar 2010
Mar 17 – 10:30 GB  GB BoE release minutes of prior (3rd-4th Mar) MPC meeting
Mar 17 – 11:00 EU  EU Labour cost indexEuro-zone Labor Costs captures employers’ total cost of employing a labor force. Rising labor costs are viewed as an indicator of forthcoming inflation, which can drive up interest rates.

Unit labor costs (labor costs divided by output) is a figure used to gauge productivity; higher levels of productivity lower unit labor costs and visa versa. Higher levels of productivity effectively allow one worker to produce more. Labor costs include gross wages and salaries, social contributions by employers and taxes remaining after all subsidies related to employment. Measured on an hourly basis, the figure is calculated as a percent changer per quarter.		 Q4 % y/y
Mar 17 – 11:00 EU  EU Labour cost indexEuro-zone Labor Costs captures employers’ total cost of employing a labor force. Rising labor costs are viewed as an indicator of forthcoming inflation, which can drive up interest rates.

Unit labor costs (labor costs divided by output) is a figure used to gauge productivity; higher levels of productivity lower unit labor costs and visa versa. Higher levels of productivity effectively allow one worker to produce more. Labor costs include gross wages and salaries, social contributions by employers and taxes remaining after all subsidies related to employment. Measured on an hourly basis, the figure is calculated as a percent changer per quarter.		 Q4 % y/y 3.2
Mar 17 – 11:05 IT  IT Current Account Jan EUR mn -3769
Mar 17 – 13:30 CA  CA Wholesale SalesThe value of sales made by Canadian wholesalers. Wholesalers sell to industries and retailers in quantities far larger than most consumers are willing to purchase. Given that growth in Wholesale Trade usually precedes increases in retail trade and consumption, changes in Wholesale Sales can be used as an early indicator for the overall direction of the retail sector, consumption, and the economy. The headline figure reports the monthly percentage change for Wholesale Sales, seasonally adjusted to account for variations in demand due to seasonal cycles.

These sectors are farm products, food, beverages, and tobacco products, personal and household goods, automotive products, building materials, machinery and electronic equipment, and other products.		 Jan % m/m 0.7
Mar 17 – 13:30 US  US PPIMeasures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.		 Feb % m/m -0.2 1.4
Mar 17 – 13:30 US  US PPI ex food and energyMeasures changes in the selling prices producers charge for goods and services, and well as tracks how prices feed through the production process. Because producers tend to pass on higher costs to consumers as higher retail prices, the PPI is valuable as an early indicator of inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the Dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. The report also gives insight into how higher prices from raw materials flow toward the final product.

A rise in PPI signals an increase in inflationary pressures. Given the economic instability associated with rising price levels, the Fed often will raise interest rates to check inflation. A low or falling PPI is indicative of declining prices, and may suggest an economic slowdown.

The headline figure is expressed in percentage change of producer price.

Core PPI, Excluding Food and Energy

The PPI is also reported without the volatile food and energy components. In addition to being seasonally volatile, the two comprise a significant portion of US goods. As a result, any sudden disruption in oil or food supplies will significantly distort the Producer Price Index inflation assessment. By excluding such entities, Core PPI is able to provide a truer, more consistent picture of US inflation trends.		 Feb % m/m 0.1 0.3
Mar 18 – 01:00 EU  EU ECB Governing council and General Council meeting (18th-19th)
Mar 18 – 01:00 WLD  WLD Institute for International Monetary Affairs hosts symposium on “Considering the International Monetary System in the Post-Crisis Era”
Mar 18 – 01:30 AU  AU Merchandise Imports Jan A$ mn
Mar 18 – 01:30 AU  AU RBA release Monthly Bulletin
Mar 18 – 06:00 JP  JP BoJ publishes Monthly Report (English translation for full text released at 07:30GMT)
Mar 18 – 06:00 JP  JP Leading indicator (F)A composite of 12 major leading indices for Japan . Movements in these indicators are known to precede larger developments in the rest of the economy.

The Indicator includes account inventory ratios, machinery orders, stock prices and other leading economic indicators. As the aggregate of many leading indices the Leading Economic Indicator provides a forecast of the future state of the domestic economy and is thought to predict activity that will occur 6-9 months after the reporting period.

The indicator operates on a 1-100 scale, where a value lower than 50 means that most indicators are negative and a value higher than 50 means most indicators are positive. In both cases a greater distance from the midpoint (50) means that the indicators are more strongly positive or negative.		 Jan index 97.1
Mar 18 – 08:15 CH  CH Trade BalanceThe difference between the total value of Swiss exports and imports. Due to its small population and limited resources, foreign trade is very important for the Swiss economy and trade statistics can have a significant impact on markets.

Switzerland’s major trading partners include Germany, France, Italy and the United States. While Switzerland still exports large amounts of traditional products like chocolate and watches, today more than half of Swiss exports are in mechanical and electrical engineering and chemicals.

A positive Trade Balance indicates a trade surplus, and a negative balance represents a trade deficit. Trade surpluses indicate that foreigners are buying Swiss goods, which are typically paid for in Swiss Francs. This translates into greater demand for the currency and upward pressure on the value of the Franc. Conversely, during a trade deficit, Swiss consumers have a higher demand for foreign currencies and this places downward pressure on the value of the Franc.		 Feb CHF bn 2.419
Mar 18 – 09:15 CH  CH Industrial ProductionMeasures the level of production of Swiss manufacturing industries. The figure tracks relative changes in the production of all goods whether they are sold domestically or abroad. The headline figure is the percentage change in the index from the previous quarter or year.

Industrial Production is highly sensitive to the business cycle, thus can forecast changes in employment, earnings, and personal income. Consequently, Industrial Production is considered a reliable leading indicator that conveys information about the overall health of the Swiss economy.		 Q4 %y/y -9
Mar 18 – 09:30 SE  SE SCB Unemployment (nsa) Feb % rate 9.4
Mar 18 – 09:30 NL  NL Consumer Confidence Mar index -13
Mar 18 – 09:30 NL  NL Unemployment (sa) Dec-Feb % rate 5.6
Mar 18 – 10:00 IT  IT EU Trade balance Jan EUR mn -1396
Mar 18 – 10:00 IT  IT Total Trade balance Jan EUR mn -123
Mar 18 – 10:00 EU  EU Current account (nsa)Summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments in and out of the Euro-zone nations to other countries. The report gauges how the Euro-zone nations’ interact with the rest of the world. Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country’s Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account). Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country interacts with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis.

The Current Account tracks the trade balance (exports and imports for goods and services), income payments (such as interest, dividends and salaries) and unilateral transfers (aid, taxes, and one-way.pngts). A positive value (current account surplus) indicates that the flow of capital from these components into the Euro-zone exceeds the capital leaving the Euro-zone. A negative value (current account deficit) means that there is a net capital outflow from the Euro-zone. Persistent Current Account deficits may lead to a depreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect that Euros are leaving the Euro Area to make payments abroad. Conversely, underlying surpluses act as an appreciating weight on the Euro.

The Euro-zone has a historically had an export oriented economy and has relied on exports as the engine for economic expansion. To this day, trade surpluses form the foundation of Euro-zone current account surpluses.

There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. The report is not very timely; released monthly at least a month after the reporting period. In addition, many of the components that lead to the final Current Account, such as production and trade figures, are known well in advance. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month, any significant developments in the Current Account should theoretically have been already felt during that quarter.

But just like GDP and Trade Balance, Current Account is central to forecasting long term developments in foreign exchange rates. It gives a detailed picture of how the Euro-zone’s aggregate economy interacts internationally, breaking down these exchanges into separate components that can be tracked and often anticipated. Thus the weight of the Current Account has led it historically to be one of the more important reports out of the Euro-zone.		 Jan EUR bn 9.4
Mar 18 – 10:00 EU  EU Current account (sa)Summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments in and out of the Euro-zone nations to other countries. The report gauges how the Euro-zone nations’ interact with the rest of the world. Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country’s Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account). Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country interacts with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis.

The Current Account tracks the trade balance (exports and imports for goods and services), income payments (such as interest, dividends and salaries) and unilateral transfers (aid, taxes, and one-way.pngts). A positive value (current account surplus) indicates that the flow of capital from these components into the Euro-zone exceeds the capital leaving the Euro-zone. A negative value (current account deficit) means that there is a net capital outflow from the Euro-zone. Persistent Current Account deficits may lead to a depreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect that Euros are leaving the Euro Area to make payments abroad. Conversely, underlying surpluses act as an appreciating weight on the Euro.

The Euro-zone has a historically had an export oriented economy and has relied on exports as the engine for economic expansion. To this day, trade surpluses form the foundation of Euro-zone current account surpluses.

There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. The report is not very timely; released monthly at least a month after the reporting period. In addition, many of the components that lead to the final Current Account, such as production and trade figures, are known well in advance. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month, any significant developments in the Current Account should theoretically have been already felt during that quarter.

But just like GDP and Trade Balance, Current Account is central to forecasting long term developments in foreign exchange rates. It gives a detailed picture of how the Euro-zone’s aggregate economy interacts internationally, breaking down these exchanges into separate components that can be tracked and often anticipated. Thus the weight of the Current Account has led it historically to be one of the more important reports out of the Euro-zone.		 Jan EUR bn 1.9
Mar 18 – 10:30 GB  GB M4 Money Supply (P)Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. It’s positively correlated with interest rates – early in the economic cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and investment, and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to inflation Feb % m/m 0.4
Mar 18 – 10:30 GB  GB M4 Money Supply (P)Change in the total quantity of domestic currency in circulation and deposited in banks. It’s positively correlated with interest rates – early in the economic cycle an increasing supply of money leads to additional spending and investment, and later in the cycle expanding money supply leads to inflation Feb % y/y 4.9
Mar 18 – 10:30 GB  GB Public Finances (PSNCR)The amount of money financed to the UK government. A higher value indicates a worsening fiscal condition for the British Government as the public sector is unable to maintain its spending patterns without further financing. As with any economy, budget deficits are unfavorable and viewed as bearish for the Pound. Feb GBP bn -11.8
Mar 18 – 11:00 EU  EU Trade balance (nsa)The difference between the value of exports and imports in Germany. Trade Balance is one of the biggest components of Germany ’s Balance of Payment. As Germany is Europe’s largest economy and given Germany’s export oriented economy, trade data can give critical insight into pressures on the value of the Euro.

In order to gauge the effect of German Trade Balance on the Euro, German trade is separated into intra-Euro-zone trades and extra-Euro-zone trades. Intra-trades between Germany and Euro-zone member countries have no affect on the overall valuation of Euro. Extra-trades between Germany and other countries outside of Euro-zone do impact the overall Euro-zone trade balance. Given Germany’s large share of Euro-zone exports, the figure tends to move the market upon release.

Trade surpluses reflect funds coming into Germany in exchange for goods and services. Such currency inflows may lead to a natural appreciation of a Euro, unless countered by similar capital outflows. At a bare minimum, surpluses will boost up the value of the currency.

This is the the non-seasonally adjusted (nsa) data. 		Jan EUR bn 4.4
Mar 18 – 11:00 EU  EU Trade balance (sa)The difference between the value of exports and imports in Germany. Trade Balance is one of the biggest components of Germany’s Balance of Payment. As Germany is Europe’s largest economy and given Germany’s export oriented economy, trade data can give critical insight into pressures on the value of the Euro.

In order to gauge the effect of German Trade Balance on the Euro, German trade is separated into intra-Euro-zone trades and extra-Euro-zone trades. Intra-trades between Germany and Euro-zone member countries have no affect on the overall valuation of Euro. Extra-trades between Germany and other countries outside of Euro-zone do impact the overall Euro-zone trade balance. Given Germany’s large share of Euro-zone exports, the figure tends to move the market upon release.

Trade surpluses reflect funds coming into Germany in exchange for goods and services. Such currency inflows may lead to a natural appreciation of a Euro, unless countered by similar capital outflows. At a bare minimum, surpluses will boost up the value of the currency.

This is the seasonally adjusted (sa) data, not to be confused with the non-seasonally adjusted (nsa) number.		 Jan EUR bn 7
Mar 18 – 12:00 GB  GB CBI Industrial TrendsA survey of senior manufacturing executives on trends in output, prices, exports, and costs. The CBI Industrial Trends Survey collects data on topics like current business confidence, capacity utilization, and investment intentions. The survey differs from most other economic surveys in that it focuses on the opinions of executives rather than quantitative data.

The report is released as an index with the zero boom/bust centerline. 		Mar Index -36
Mar 18 – 13:30 US  US Current accountThe Current Account Balance Summarizes the flow of goods, services, income and transfer payments into and out of the US . The report acts as a line-item record of how the US economy interacts with the world economy. The Current Account is one of the three components that make up a country’s Balance of Payments (Financial Account, Capital Account and Current Account), the detailed accounting of all international interactions. Where the other side of the Balance of Payments, Capital and Financial Accounts deal mainly with financial assets and investments, the Current Account gives a detailed breakdown of how the country intermingles with rest of the global economy on a non-investment basis – tracking good and services.

The Current Account tracks the trade balance (exports and imports for goods and services), income payments (such as interest, dividends and salaries) and unilateral transfers (aid, taxes, and one-way.pngts). A positive value (current account surplus) indicates that the flow of capital from these components into America exceeds the capital leaving the country. A negative value (current account deficit) means that there is a net capital outflow from these sources. Persistent Current Account deficits may lead to a natural depreciation of a currency, as trade, income and transfer payments usually reflect that dollars are leaving the country to make payments in a foreign currency (just as underlying surpluses act as an appreciating weight). Such depreciation may be offset by capital flows into the country; the TICs or Net Foreign Security Purchases tracks such flows.

Trade balance is typically the largest element of the Current Account. For the past few decades the US has experienced high current account deficits primarily as a result of large trade deficits.

There are a number of factors that often work to diminish the impact of the Current Account release on the market. The report is not very timely, released monthly at least a month after the reporting period. In addition, many of the components that lead to the final Current Account, such as production and trade figures, are known well in advance. Lastly, since the report reflects data for a specific reporting month, any significant developments in the Current Account should plausibly have been already felt during that quarter and not during the release of data.

But just like GDP and Trade Balance, Current Account is central to forecasting long term developments in foreign exchange rates. It gives a detailed picture of how the US economy interacts internationally, breaking down these exchanges into separate components that can be tracked and often anticipated. Thus the weight of the Current Account has led it historically to be one of the more important reports out of the United States.		 Q4 $ bn -120 -108
Mar 18 – 13:30 US  US Initial ClaimsThe number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week. This is the nation’s earliest economic data. The market impact fluctuates from week to week – there tends to be more focus on the release when traders need to diagnose recent developments, or when the reading is at extremes. 13-Mar k
Mar 18 – 13:30 US  US CPICPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes consumer pay for a set of items. CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical American household might purchase. An increase in the Consumer Price Index indicates that it takes more dollars to purchase the same set basket of basic consumer items.

Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI’s set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.

On A Technical Note: The CPI includes over 200 categories of goods and services included, divided into 8 main groups, each with a different weight: Housing, Transportation, Food, Medical Care, Education and Communication, Recreation, Apparel, and Other Goods and Services.		 Feb %m/m 0.1 0.2
Mar 18 – 13:30 US  US CPI ex food and energyCPI assesses changes in the cost of living by measuring changes consumer pay for a set of items. CPI serves as the headline figure for inflation. Simply put, inflation reflects a decline in the purchasing power of the dollar, where each dollar buys fewer goods and services. In terms of measuring inflation, CPI is the most obvious way to quantify changes in purchasing power. The report tracks changes in the price of a basket of goods and services that a typical American household might purchase. An increase in the Consumer Price Index indicates that it takes more dollars to purchase the same set basket of basic consumer items.

Inflation is generally bad news for the economy, causing instability, uncertainty and hardship. To address inflation, the Fed may raise interest rates. However, the Fed relies on the PCE Deflator as its primary gauge of inflation because the CPI does not account for the ability of consumer to substitute out of CPI’s set. Price changes tend to cause consumers to switch from buying one good to a less expensive-other, a tendency that the fixed-basket CPI figure does not yet account for. Given that the PCE Deflator is a more comprehensive calculation, based on changes in consumption; it is the figure the Fed prefers.

The figure is released monthly, as either a month over month annualized percentage change, or percentage change for the full year. The figure is seasonally adjusted to account seasonal consumption patterns.

On A Technical Note: The CPI includes over 200 categories of goods and services included, divided into 8 main groups, each with a different weight: Housing, Transportation, Food, Medical Care, Education and Communication, Recreation, Apparel, and Other Goods and Services.

CPI Excluding Food and Energy – United States

The CPI is also reported excluding food and energy; two of its most volatile components. These components are particularly sensitive to temporary economic factors like oil prices, natural disasters and seasonal affects. Consequently, CPI excluding Food and Energy provides a more stable figure, but at the cost of overlooking two significant sectors in the economy (together food and energy comprise nearly a quarter of the goods included in the CPI).

The figure is the monthly percent change in the index.		 Feb % m/m 0.1 -0.1
Mar 18 – 13:30 US  US Kansas City Fed President Hoenig and Richmond Fed President Lacker participate in discussion on “The Role of Banking in Local Economic Growth”
Mar 18 – 13:30 US  US Fed Governor Duke, FDIC Chair Bair give speech before American Bankers Association government relations summit
Mar 18 – 15:00 US  US Leading IndicatorUS Leading Indicator is a composite index designed to forecast trends in the overall economy. The index is based on ten key indicators known to precede changes in the economy. Though the index has a less than perfect historical record, it still is a worthwhile forecasting tool. Given the high volume of economic data, the Leading Indicators Index is useful by condensing ten indicators into one value headline figure.

Headline numbers will be a percentage annual growth of the overall composite. As high values are indicative of economic growth, such figures bode well for the overall US Economy. Uncontrolled growth lead by this figure however may raise concerns about inflation and economic stability.

Note: The indicators included in the figure are (in order of decreasing weight): interest rate spread, M2 money supply, average manufacturing workweek, manufacturers’ new orders, S&P 500, average weekly unemployment claims, vendor performance, housing permits, consumer expectations and manufacturer’s new orders for non-defense capital goods.		 Feb % m/m 0.1 0.3
Mar 18 – 15:00 US  US Philadelphia Fed SurveySurvey conducted by the Philadelphia Fed questioning manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District on general business conditions. Conducted since 1968, the “Philly Fed” survey is an established report, valued for its timeliness, scope of coverage and tendency to forecast developments in the market moving ISM Manufacturing figure.

Higher Philadelphia Fed Survey figures indicate a positive outlook from manufacturers, suggesting increased production. Higher production contributes to economic growth, which is generally bullish for the dollar.

Results are calculated as the difference between percentage of positive and negative scores; zero acts as the centerline point.		 Mar index 17 17.6
Mar 18 – 18:00 CH  CH SNB board member Danthine gives speech in Zurich
Mar 18 – 22:45 NZ  NZ External MigrationChange in the number of short-term overseas visitors who arrived in the country. It is important because tourism plays an important role in the economy – about 10% of the population is employed by the tourism industry, and a sizable portion of the nation’s GDP is indirectly related to tourism Feb (sa, net people)
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